🛠️ Texas Home Sellers, Are You at Risk of Losing Money?
In 2025, Texas home sellers face a tough housing market. In all 4 Texas metro market, the risk of selling their homes for less than they paid are higher than the 5.7% average US sellers risk. This summary, based on Redfin’s report and Alex Real Estate and Alex AI’s research and analysis, explains why sellers are losing money, which Texas cities are hit hardest, and what you can do to protect your investment. Submitted by Diane Hart Alexander, MBA, MHA, Alex Chair.
View or listen to report for the 50 largest US Metro Markets.
🛠️ The US Housing Market in 2025
The housing market across the US is shifting toward buyers. Redfin reports that 6% of U.S. home sellers are at risk of selling at a loss, up from 4.4% last year. That may not sound like a big increase but is is a 36% increase in one year [(6% / 4.4%) – 1].
Why is this happening? There are more sellers than buyers, causing homes to stay on the market longer.
🛠️ Redfin vs Alex AI Trend
Redfin predicts a 1% drop in U.S. home prices by the end of 2025.
Alex hyper focuses our trend analysis and projection. Alex 1 and 3 year price change projections are at the zip code level. If we can project statistically accurate trend at Block Group Level we do so. This provides Alex Real Estate buyers and sellers with a substantial advantage in the market.
🛠️ Bought BEFORE the Pandemic?
In every Texas Metro Area analyzed, those who bought before July 2020 have the least risk of selling at a loss. Ranges from 0.4% in Dallas to 1.7% in Houston. This is the only category where Texas fared better than the US.
🛠️ Bought DURING the Pandemic?
If you bought between July 2020 and July 2022, you have at least a 10% risk of selling at a loss. Ranges from 10.0% in Houston to 32.2% in Houston.
🛠️ Bought AFTER the Pandemic?
In every Texas Metro Area analyzed, those who bought AFTER July 2022 have the highest risk of selling at a loss compared to the overall US market. Texas potential losses range from 20.0% in Houston to 47.5% in Austin whereas across the US 16.4% of homes for sale purchased after the Pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss.
🛠️ Why Are Sellers Losing Money?
Several factors are driving these losses:
🔹 Aspirational pricing: Pricing above the market to test the market typically results in taking longer to sell and selling for less than market value. Alex Real Estate refers to this as the “Aspirational Pricing Syndrome.”
🔹 High purchase prices: Buyers who purchased during the 2020-2022 pandemic boom paid top dollar due to low mortgage rates and bidding wars.
🔹 Rising mortgage rates: Rates near 7% in 2025 make it harder for buyers, reducing demand.
🔹 More inventory: Texas has 16.2% more homes for sale than last year, giving buyers more choices and bargaining power.
🔹 Economic uncertainty: Buyers working with real estate experts like Alex Real Estate are more precise in valuations than ever, leaving sellers with fewer offers.
🛠️ What Can Texas Sellers Do?
Sellers can take action to avoid losses:
🔹 Price competitively: Set realistic prices based on current micro data and market trends.
🔹 Work with experts: Partner with expert real estate teams supported by AI and MBAs focused on micro market data, research, analysis, valuation, pricing, negotiations and marketing like those at Alex Real Estate to navigate the market.
🔹 Improve your home: Get your home make ready. If you are an Alex client, we provide you a project plan with ROI estimates by project item to maximize your investment return.
🔹 Be patient: It is taking longer to sell.
🛠️ Contributing Organizations
🔹 Redfin: Provided the core data and analysis on the U.S. housing markets
🔹 Alex Real Estate and Alex AI: Provided the research, analysis and graphics on the Texas housing markets
🔹 Mark Worley, Redfin Data Journalist
🔹 Asad Khan, Redfin Senior Economics
🔹 George Alexander, Alex Real Estate Associate Broker and Director Alex AI
🛠️ My Perspective
As a Real Estate AI expert, I see the housing market as a complex system where data and technology can make a difference. Tools like Redfin’s Home Price Index and Alex AI’s research, analysis and visualizations show how AI can predict trends and guide decisions. Texans must act now—use data-driven strategies to price homes correctly whether you are a buyer and/or a seller. Don’t wait for a market shift further against you!
Text “Stats” to George Alexander at 713.591.9902 to explore this article or anything related to Texas real estate.
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